Thursday, May 9, 2019

Episode 21: Making your list, checking it twice (after "Bikoy")

As we head into the final week of the campaign, voters are starting to form their views, about who to support and vote for on May 13. They’re making their list, and checking it twice.

Questions have been asked during this campaign. Asked of the opposition, and by the opposition. About the overall framing of this election and of the policies that matter to voters.

With regards to framing, how would the opposition position itself against the administration? Would they pose as obstructionist fiscalisers to Duterte in the senate, or as constructive alternatives to the ruling coalition?




So in the case of GMA and the Genuine Opposition in the midterms of 2007, her unpopularity as a result of the Hello Garci scandal, meant that the opposition could present itself as robust fiscalisers. This resulted in the opposition garnering a majority of the senate seats, with GMA’s Team Unity only getting 2/12 seats.

For PNoy and UNA during the 2013 midterm election, the opposition’s cooperative stance to a then popular administration, a continuation of the NoyBi campaign of 2010, allowed them to share in the electoral spoils that year with 3/12 seats.

But in the case of Otso Diretso in 2019, it has sought to define itself as the party of Resistance, as the only thing that stand in the way of Pres. Duterte, who has, according to the latest polls, reached the height of his popularity among voters.

As a result, the opposition’s candidates are languishing at the polls, with only one or at best two having a chance of landing in the Magic 12 with a distinct possibility that neither of them will.

Next question: Would a scandal in the middle of the campaign, cause voters to change their minds about this administration?

That was the question posed by the Bikoy videos. It was obviously meant to be one of the set pieces of the campaign, a real “Gotcha moment” similar to “Hello, Garci”. But it seems to have backfired, or at least become so muddled.

Two people have different stories about who is behind the videos. Rodel Jayme, a website developer, whom the authorities arrested after seizing incriminating evidence during a lawful search at his home, and Peter Advincula who came forward after Jayme threatened to reveal all that he knew and who has apparently been involved in a few scams in the past. Events are quite fluid, but at the time that this podcast was recorded, it was revealed by Sen. Sotto that Advincula had made the same allegation before against ex-Pres. Aquino and his Justice Sec. Leila de Lima, while he was in prison for grand estafa and illegal recruitment.

Even if the Opposition denies any involvement in it, the arrest of Rodel Jayme, an apparent Liberal Party supporter (photographed with VP Leni Robredo several times) is not a good look for them, since they would directly benefit from such a scandal. Tagging Duterte’s underaged daughter as a drug merchant was probably an overreach, as it simply beggars belief that a young lady such as herself could get entangled in such a complex criminal web that the video alleges and shows a complete lack of delicadeza.

Hardened loyalists on either side won’t change their minds regarding the allegations, but the swing voters in the middle might. So we will have to wait and see what unfolds.There could be further revelations in the days ahead, as the DOJ and NBI continue their investigation, which could add another twist to this plot.

Which issues should define the election campaign?

During the debates: Issues such as same sex marriage, legalisation of medical marijuana, divorce, and other markers of progressivism were asked of the candidates. These issues seem to be high on the bucket list of affluent, millennial voters, but they don’t seem to be as salient for ordinary Filipinos belonging to classes D and E, whose focus might be more on bread and butter issues, such as jobs, wages and cost of living.

The Opposition which under the Vice President, tried to position itself as the voice of people on the fringes, with its Ahon Laylayan Koalisyon, gambled on a platform that sought to cobble together different marginal constituents that traditionally were targeted by the legal leftist groups in the country. It hasn’t really offered anything to the broad middle class, other than to appeal to their sense of decency in opposing a “foul-mouthed” Duterte.

The administration, for its part, with its fresh credit upgrade on the back of its tax reforms, its ease of doing business legislation to reduce red tape, its infrastructure build program, its rice liberalisation law which reduces inflation, can simply run on its record of increasing entitlements for free education and healthcare that it already has passed, providing jobs and lowering unemployment through sound economic management and fiscal responsibility.

All of that might be well and good, the opposition might say, but what about the administration’s war on drugs? The deaths related to it? Should we just give the administration a free pass on that?

What about the challenges in the West Philippine Sea? The encroachment of our neighbours on our exclusive economic zone? The loans of China and the influx of Chinese nationals into the country, taking on jobs that could have gone to locals, some would say? Shouldn’t we register our vigorous opposition to these developments?

These are the policy questions that have been posed by the opposition.

First of all, on the war on drugs. We don’t really know the real figure on the number of deaths related to it. But whatever it is, here is something we ought to be addressing - helping the victims of this war - namely the children and spouses who have lost their main breadwinners, and the drug dependents who have surrendered or still suffer mental illness and need treatment. And reintegrating drug pushers into society after they have served their prison sentences. Those for and against the war on drugs can’t deny that these are valid challenges, facing us.

And, I haven’t really seen a debate around what to do here. Neither side has put out a policy for how to address these needs, other from Bato dela Rosa who has pushed for more rehabilitation centres in the community to deal with drug addicts and mandate the teaching of drug awareness to students in schools.

How about a preventive drug program in schools? The only candidate who has espoused that is Sen Nancy Binay. What to do with the victims of drugs and the drug war, as an issue, has been drowned by the noise of the campaign. So for the opposition, it represents a lost opportunity, in my view, to provide an alternative drug policy, to deal with what they claim is an anti-poor drug campaign.

If they had articulated such a policy, they might have peeled away some support from the administration, from people who see drugs as a real problem, but have doubts as to the long-run efficacy of Duterte’s war on drugs. Instead of pushing for legalisation of drugs, a controversial topic, as the VP has done, they could have distinguished themselves from the administration, by showing how they would treat mental illness and provide restorative justice to the community for victims of EJKs. Instead, we have the Bikoy videos.

Secondly, on the West Philippine sea. Whether you are for constructive or antagonistic approaches to China, one problem remains, we don’t really pose a credible deterrent to China with our feeble navy and coast guard. All of our neighbours Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore, not to mention Taiwan have built up significant military assets to patrol their seas and protect their interests.

The only way to enforce the UN arbitral ruling is with de facto occupation of certain features and reefs, and patrolling the water around them, through the hard power of the navy and coast guard. I haven’t heard of any policy pronouncements by either side that would commit us to higher defence spending for navy modernisation, or to strengthening our fortifications in some of these islands that we have claimed.

The Duterte administration has significantly ramped up spending on defence in its first three years. This can be increased or better directed. Rather than riding jet skis and waving flags in the SCS, I wish that some candidates from Otso Diretso had articulated a well-considered policy on how they might support the current defense modernisation program and posture with more funding and greater cooperation. Again, another missed opportunity to look like responsible legislators, rather than grandstanding politicos without a clue on how to implement their ideals.

Thirdly, on China’s Belt and Road initiative and infiltration of our local job market, I haven’t really seen any concrete proposals for how we can improve the jobs and skill matching of our education and training sector, to ensure that locals have every chance to gain employment from these projects. How do we develop master plumbers, master carpenters and the like, from scratch? It’s only through apprenticeships and traineeships of course - which can be funded through TESDA to benefit both employer and apprentice.

No one has really tried addressing this issue of skills shortage other than Bam Aquino who has pledged to open more Trabaho centers, which really can only help refer people who already have the training and skills, but doesn’t provide employers the opportunity to offer subsidised places for apprentices and trainees to work for them, while receiving accredited on the job training towards an industry recognised occupational qualification.

I also think that this issue has been drowned out by those who, in any western nation would have been called out for their xenophobic, racist epithets. What we should be guaranteeing is a better monitoring and tightening of the process for approving foreign worker visas. Again, I haven’t really heard any concrete proposals on how we might do this from any of the candidates or parties.

If these problems are uppermost in some voters minds, then our politicians and their parties haven’t really articulated policies that would address them in a considered way. The final week is usually about closing the deal with constituents and preparing for the ground game by getting logistical arrangements in place. Last minute revelations might still cause a swing one way or another. Policy discussions tend to be thrown out the window.

As we reflect on this campaign season, many questions have been asked, but the crucial ones, I fear, still haven’t been answered.

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